SEC West Championship hopes

What a difference a couple of weeks make. Who saw Arkansas upsetting both Ole Miss and LSU? State better be ready! (Bit worried about that one actually. I don’t remember State EVER winning a game versus Arkansas in the state of Arkansas.)

Alabama with one SEC loss is in the lead now, with Arkansas (YES ARKANSAS!), LSU and Ole Miss behind with 2 SEC losses each. MSU and A&M each have 3 SEC losses so they are out as is Auburn with 5 SEC losses on the year. What happened to Auburn this year, their only hope is to spoil Alabama’s chance at the national championship games by giving them another loss! Gotta add that, I will laugh my ass off if Auburn does somehow beat Alabama but I don’t see that happening.

With the SEC West beating the hell out of each other, I don’t know if Alabama will make it to the championship games even if they win out. The SEC West is VERY muddled in the middle; hell, change around 6 plays and almost every game this year could have gone the other way. Because of the  multiple losses, the rest of the country will declare the SEC ‘weak’, where most of us SEC fans will see ‘parity’. Whether that ‘parity’ means that your average SEC West school can beat your average other big 5 conference team I don’t honestly know, but I think for the most part the West won their OOC games. The Memphis loss isn’t nearly as bad as Ole Miss fans thought at the time, but I can’t explain away the Arkansas early OOC losses.

We should be getting some pretty accurate bowl predictions this time next week. Remaining games (teams in alphabetical order):

Alabama (9-1, 6-1)
Charleston Southern
Auburn

Arkansas (6-4, 4-2)
MSU
Missouri

Auburn (5-5, 2-5)
Idaho
Alabama

LSU (7-2, 4-2)
Ole Miss
Texas A&M

MSU (7-3, 3-3)
Arkansas
Ole Miss

Ole Miss (7-3,4-2)
LSU
MSU

Texas A&M (7-3, 3-3)
Vanderbilt
LSU

 

First World Bitching: Bowl Game Style

Look, I agree there may be too many bowl games now, but for crying out loud stop bitching about it so much. If it bothers you so much, just stop watching the bowls you aren’t interested in. If the bowls didn’t make money they wouldn’t have so many. The fact that they ARE making money means they’ll continue to play them.

As as far as I’m concerned it’s a nice consolation gift to the players, even if I don’t watch their particular bowl game.

SEC is down this year or so they say.

I’ve been hearing, since about the middle of the season, that the SEC is having a down year. I even bought into that. Believed it. Then I went and checked the Strength of Schedule over at Team Rankings. Now maybe there’s a better SOS listing and I just missed it, but looking over the list over there, I noticed something.

Here is a list of ALL TEAMS with 3 or fewer losses ranked in the top 30 by SOS(Strength Of Schedule).

2 Alabama 11-1
5 Ole Miss 9-3
6 Miss. State 10-2
8 UCLA 9-3
9 TCU 10-1
10 Oklahoma 8-3
12 Georgia 9-3
13 Oregon 11-1
16 Baylor 10-1
18 Kansas St. 9-2
21 Arizona 10-2
23 Arizona St. 9-3
24 Missouri 10-2
26 Mich St 10-2
29 Clemson 9-3 

There is one more week of games to play before the final SOS comes out, but I don’t think FIVE teams with fewer than 3 losses with the 30 hardest SOS is a “weak” conference.

Florida State’s SOS? 36.

Ohio State? 33

Maybe THAT is one of the reasons FSU keeps dropping in the commission’s picks and OSU is on the outside looking in right now?

By the way if you just want SEC schools within the top 30 hardest SOS regardless of win/loss:

1 Auburn 8-4
2 Alabama 11-1
3 Arkansas 6-6
4 LSU 8-4
5 Ole Miss 9-3
6 Miss. State 10-2
7 Texas A&M 7-5
12 Georgia 9-3
15 Florida 6-5
19 Tennessee 6-6
24 Missouri 10-2
25 South Car. 6-6

 

Kentucky (5-7) has a SOS of 38 and Vanderbilt (3-9) is at 67.

That doesn’t seem to be a list of a SEC Conference having a ‘down’ year. That looks like a SEC not having one dominant team WITHIN the SEC.

If you want the Football Power Index from ESPN you get this from the top 25:

1 Alabama
3 Ole Miss
4 Georgia
6 Auburn
10 MS. State
14 LSU
18 Arkansas
22 Florida
23 Texas A&M

 

Basically SEC Haters gotta Hate, but I think the rankings have worked out pretty well for everyone this season. I’m looking forward to seeing the playoff and if Alabama loses to Missou this weekend and the SEC isn’t represented I’ll be okay with that. I’ll still think the SEC is the premier college football conference and the best players play here.

Oh, and one last thing about the possibility of no SEC teams in the top 4. Parity within the conference is a bitch!

 

 

Rivalry

Rivalry trophies are like kids in a divorce. They never go ‘home’ they just stay with one parent or the other for a while before going back to the other one, and the entire time the host tries to convince the kid and themselves that they love them more than the other guys.

College Football is NUTS this year!

I can understand the complaints about the SEC being over-rated, I mean hell, 4 of the TOP 5 teams are SEC WEST schools, but think about what that means for SEC schools to just REACH the championship this year.

I can’t pretend to know what everyone will be ranked as the teams play later in the season, so I’m just going to use their rankings as they were when the games were played earlier in the season, and as they are now ranked as if that’s what they will be ranked when they play later in the season.

The number of top ranked opponents you’d have to beat in order to become the National Champion this year is CRAZY if you are in the SEC West!

MSU would have to beat 8 top 10 schools to win it all. They’ve already beat #8 LSU(over-rated), #6Texas A&M(over-rated), and #2 Auburn(not over-rated). To guarantee winning the SEC West they’ll need to beat #4 Alabama(NOT over-rated) and #3 Ole Miss(Not over-rated), then in order to get to the National Championship games they’ll need to beat the SEC championship opponent from the East who will most likely be a top 10 team, then win the preliminary championship game against a top 5 opponent, and of course the championship game opponent who will also be a top 5 opponent!

Ole Miss and all the SEC West teams are in basically the same boat. Ole Miss has beaten 2 top 15 teams, and would have to beat (#24 LSU), #5 Auburn, and #1 MSU then their opponents become the same as above. That’s again 8 top 25 teams!

Alabama would have to beat 7 top 25 teams! (After losing to one!)

Auburn would have to beat 8! (After losing to one!)

Georgia if they win the SEC East would have to beat 6 top 25 teams to win it all.

Florida State has so far beaten #22 Clemson, and #5 Notre Dame, and would have to beat the ACC Championship opponent (I’m assuming they’ll be ranked) and then the 2 playoff teams. So they will have to run a gauntlet of 5 top 25 ranked teams to win it all (Maybe only 4).

I’m not bringing all this up to glorify the SEC, but to simply point out how incredibly unlikely this season has been. I think Florida State’s gauntlet is a bit weaker than normal but it’s still the more usual path to a championship. The SEC West teams path is so incredibly difficult I’ll be amazed if any of them actually make it. Only Ole Miss or Mississippi State can actually run the table at this point, and both teams still have to get through their second games with an Alabama school and then each other.

It’s a crazy year folks! Playing 15 games, much less WINNING all 15 just seems an incredibly arduous task for these kids. I REALLY hope there aren’t many injuries ahead.

I’ll end with this: #HAILSTATE!

We’re #1! We’re #1!

I stand by my last post. Rankings don’t matter much till late October or early November, but I’m still going to celebrate my Alma mater, being ranked #1 for the first time in it’s history! Keep those wins rolling Mississippi State, and congratulations!

 

It’s going to be a hell of an Eggbowl this year!