I understand that partisans will argue about things. I understand that partisans need to spin things so that their ‘side’ looks better. But what I don’t understand is partisans jumping on someone for using math.
I know a lot of Democrats are going to be very sad, angry or confused if Nate Silver ends up getting his predictions totally wrong. And I know a lot of Republicans are sad, angry or confused at his predictions, period. But when you look at how Silver has been doing his blog, it’s not a partisan site. It’s a statistical site. Math.
I can understand how pundits (on both sides) would hate the 538 blog. It takes their “I know what I’m talking about, because I know people you don’t” position and basically makes it irrelevant. What high priest wouldn’t hate seeing their basic job being done away by someone with a calculator, instead of with their inside knowledge and goat entrails. Silver already did this whole song and dance with baseball. The smarter baseball reporters figured out they needed to understand stats a bit better, while the ones that refused to adapt were slowly phased out. I’m HOPING this happens for our political reporters as well.
If you don’t like the results of the 538 blog, PLEASE use math to tell people why. Otherwise your argument just sounds hollow. Hell, I’d bet Nate would love to find holes in his algorithms, so he can fix it. He ‘missed’ a bit on the 2010 elections and adjusted accordingly. He’s interested in statistically forecasting national elections accurately. The fact that those forecasts look good for a Democratic president is just a result of these particular elections and not a partisan move on Silver’s part.
I guess I shouldn’t be surprised by all the attacks on Silver. After all, the mainstream news NEEDS the presidential race to be a horse-race to keep viewership up. But some of the attacks have been downright stupid.