Ole Miss destined for Sugar no matter what?

So let’s take for granted that Florida will lose in the SEC Championship game against Alabama. That’ll put them below Ole Miss in the polls and probably the Championship list too (if they aren’t there Tuesday night already). That’ll mean Alabama goes to the Championship series and Ole Miss gets the Sugar Bowl right?

Now here’s what I found sad/funny. If Ole Miss had beat Arkansas and gone to the SEC Championship, I think they would have been left out of the Championship games no matter what. So they’d have ended up at…the Sugar Bowl even if they won out. Looks like UM (and MSU and tons of other non-blue-blood favorites) can forget about ever reaching those Championship Series games until and unless they win out. No losses.

They REALLY gotta extend the Championship Playoff to 8 teams ASAP.  (Why we aren’t able to do the same as the lower divisions have been doing FOREVER still baffles me. I know, I know. $$$)

SEC is down this year or so they say.

I’ve been hearing, since about the middle of the season, that the SEC is having a down year. I even bought into that. Believed it. Then I went and checked the Strength of Schedule over at Team Rankings. Now maybe there’s a better SOS listing and I just missed it, but looking over the list over there, I noticed something.

Here is a list of ALL TEAMS with 3 or fewer losses ranked in the top 30 by SOS(Strength Of Schedule).

2 Alabama 11-1
5 Ole Miss 9-3
6 Miss. State 10-2
8 UCLA 9-3
9 TCU 10-1
10 Oklahoma 8-3
12 Georgia 9-3
13 Oregon 11-1
16 Baylor 10-1
18 Kansas St. 9-2
21 Arizona 10-2
23 Arizona St. 9-3
24 Missouri 10-2
26 Mich St 10-2
29 Clemson 9-3 

There is one more week of games to play before the final SOS comes out, but I don’t think FIVE teams with fewer than 3 losses with the 30 hardest SOS is a “weak” conference.

Florida State’s SOS? 36.

Ohio State? 33

Maybe THAT is one of the reasons FSU keeps dropping in the commission’s picks and OSU is on the outside looking in right now?

By the way if you just want SEC schools within the top 30 hardest SOS regardless of win/loss:

1 Auburn 8-4
2 Alabama 11-1
3 Arkansas 6-6
4 LSU 8-4
5 Ole Miss 9-3
6 Miss. State 10-2
7 Texas A&M 7-5
12 Georgia 9-3
15 Florida 6-5
19 Tennessee 6-6
24 Missouri 10-2
25 South Car. 6-6

 

Kentucky (5-7) has a SOS of 38 and Vanderbilt (3-9) is at 67.

That doesn’t seem to be a list of a SEC Conference having a ‘down’ year. That looks like a SEC not having one dominant team WITHIN the SEC.

If you want the Football Power Index from ESPN you get this from the top 25:

1 Alabama
3 Ole Miss
4 Georgia
6 Auburn
10 MS. State
14 LSU
18 Arkansas
22 Florida
23 Texas A&M

 

Basically SEC Haters gotta Hate, but I think the rankings have worked out pretty well for everyone this season. I’m looking forward to seeing the playoff and if Alabama loses to Missou this weekend and the SEC isn’t represented I’ll be okay with that. I’ll still think the SEC is the premier college football conference and the best players play here.

Oh, and one last thing about the possibility of no SEC teams in the top 4. Parity within the conference is a bitch!

 

 

College Football is NUTS this year!

I can understand the complaints about the SEC being over-rated, I mean hell, 4 of the TOP 5 teams are SEC WEST schools, but think about what that means for SEC schools to just REACH the championship this year.

I can’t pretend to know what everyone will be ranked as the teams play later in the season, so I’m just going to use their rankings as they were when the games were played earlier in the season, and as they are now ranked as if that’s what they will be ranked when they play later in the season.

The number of top ranked opponents you’d have to beat in order to become the National Champion this year is CRAZY if you are in the SEC West!

MSU would have to beat 8 top 10 schools to win it all. They’ve already beat #8 LSU(over-rated), #6Texas A&M(over-rated), and #2 Auburn(not over-rated). To guarantee winning the SEC West they’ll need to beat #4 Alabama(NOT over-rated) and #3 Ole Miss(Not over-rated), then in order to get to the National Championship games they’ll need to beat the SEC championship opponent from the East who will most likely be a top 10 team, then win the preliminary championship game against a top 5 opponent, and of course the championship game opponent who will also be a top 5 opponent!

Ole Miss and all the SEC West teams are in basically the same boat. Ole Miss has beaten 2 top 15 teams, and would have to beat (#24 LSU), #5 Auburn, and #1 MSU then their opponents become the same as above. That’s again 8 top 25 teams!

Alabama would have to beat 7 top 25 teams! (After losing to one!)

Auburn would have to beat 8! (After losing to one!)

Georgia if they win the SEC East would have to beat 6 top 25 teams to win it all.

Florida State has so far beaten #22 Clemson, and #5 Notre Dame, and would have to beat the ACC Championship opponent (I’m assuming they’ll be ranked) and then the 2 playoff teams. So they will have to run a gauntlet of 5 top 25 ranked teams to win it all (Maybe only 4).

I’m not bringing all this up to glorify the SEC, but to simply point out how incredibly unlikely this season has been. I think Florida State’s gauntlet is a bit weaker than normal but it’s still the more usual path to a championship. The SEC West teams path is so incredibly difficult I’ll be amazed if any of them actually make it. Only Ole Miss or Mississippi State can actually run the table at this point, and both teams still have to get through their second games with an Alabama school and then each other.

It’s a crazy year folks! Playing 15 games, much less WINNING all 15 just seems an incredibly arduous task for these kids. I REALLY hope there aren’t many injuries ahead.

I’ll end with this: #HAILSTATE!

SEC Bowling. Winner/Loser picks.

10 SEC schools are going bowling this year.

Ole Miss vs Georgia Tech
Mississippi State vs Rice
Texas A&M vs Duke
Georgia vs Nebraska
LSU vs Iowa
South Carolina vs Wisconsin
Alabama vs Oklahoma
Missouri vs Oklahoma State
Vanderbilt vs Houston
Auburn vs Florida State

Which one(s) do you think will lose their bowl game?

I think MSU, A&M, and LSU should have the easiest time, and I’d never bet against Bama in a bowl. The rest should be really good games.

I’m most concerned about the Ole Miss and Auburn games.

You just don’t know how well the defense can handle the GT option offense and that puts the Ole Miss game in question in my mind. If they can handle it then it should be a really good day for UM, other wise, watch out, it’s gonna be a shoot out.

After the SEC championship game, I have no idea how Auburn’s defense will do versus the FSU offense. FSU has one of(if not THE) best offenses out there, and is a really well rounded team. Will the SEC domination be coming to an end, or will the SEC secure forever the last 8 wins of the BCS era?

SEC Arguments Incoming!

SEC fans will be hollering that a 1 loss SEC team is better than a unbeaten Ohio State and should therefore play in the BCS Championship Game. What could their argument possibly be?

It’ll be based on this:
Going by rankings at the time they played:

Florida State has beaten #25 Maryland, #3 Clemson, and #7 Miami. They play #20 Duke this weekend to stay undefeated.
Ohio State has beaten #23 Wisconsin and #16 Northwestern. They play #10 Michigan State to stay undefeated.

Auburn has one loss to a #6 ranked LSU, and has beaten #24 Ole Miss, #7 Texas A&M, #25 Georgia and #1 Alabama. They play #5 Missouri this weekend.
Missouri has one loss to #21 South Carolina, and has beaten #7 Georgia, #22 Florida, #24 Ole Miss, and #21 Texas A&M. They play #3 Auburn this weekend.
Alabama has one loss to a #4 ranked Auburn, and has beaten #6 Texas A&M, #21 Ole Miss, and #13 LSU.

Going by CURRENT(12/02/2013) rankings:

FSU has beaten #13 Clemson, and plays #20 Duke.(Yes freaking DUKE!)
OSU has beaten #21 Wisconsin, and plays #10 Michigan State.
Auburn has a loss to #15 LSU, and beaten #24 Texas A&M, #22 Georgia, and #4 Alabama. Plays #5 Missouri.
Missouri has a lost to #7 South Carolina, and beaten #22 Georgia and #24 Texas A&M. Plays #3 Auburn.
Alabama has a loss to #3 Auburn, and beaten #24 Texas A&M, and #15 LSU.

As a SEC homer I think the argument has merit but won’t be surprised if we get FSU-OSU if both win out. I’d suggest SEC fans become big fans of Duke and Michigan State this weekend.

So fire the guy that put all the SEC games on at the same time!

With that out of the way, there is no joy in Mississippi this week.

Mississippi State played a great game for around 45 minutes. Then they turned to unadulterated shit. 28 points in the last quarter? For crying out loud LSU’s coaching staff wasn’t even TRYING to score the last half of the quarter. They were calling things like dives over and over and the MSU defense wouldn’t TACKLE the son-of-bitch. It was a PATHETIC display of giving up, and I blame the coaching staff for that. That’s 3 complete failures that I put on the coaching staff’s shoulders so far this year. This staff sucks.

Don’t know what happened in the Ole Miss or Southern Miss games. Southern must be even worse that I thought to have lost to FIU. WTH GUYS? As for Ole Miss, I know there were some turnovers, but I’ll have to have the Ole Miss faithful fill me in on what happened. Was Auburn just better than thought or Ole Miss weaker? Both?

Not sure what to expect going forward. MSU shows flashes of being an actual good team, but then just folds completely before the end of the game. Ole Miss should be in for a hard stretch in their schedule. Could be a long season.